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| Analysis and Prediction of the Number of Tourists Based on ARIMA Model |
| Ningxia University |
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Abstract By determining the parameters of the ARIMA model, the prediction model of the number of Chinese domestic tourists is established to provide a reference for the prediction of the number of future tourism in China. First of all, the number of domestic tourists from 1994 to 2015 is selected as the training data to judge whether the time series is stable. Otherwise，the stationary processing will be carried out. Then the model parameters are determined and the prediction model is established. Finally, the number of domestic tourists from 2016 to 2018 is predicted according to the established ARIMA model. Experiments show that ARIMA model can predict the number of domestic tourists well.
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Published: 31 July 2019
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